Archive for the ‘ Crescendo ’ Category
Salve a tutti,
I got many email asking where to download Crescendo v1.4.
Well the link to download it is in the announcement post (http://www.pimpmyea.com/crescendo-1-4-free-update-available/) but for those who missed that post here’s the link:
http://www.forexcrescendo.com/downloads/Crescendo_v1dot4.zip
I’m about to put it also in the download are along with the automatic installer.
A presto.
Salve a tutti,
with version 1.4 I did introduce a linear martingale approach as default.
That means that the lot size for additional orders will be increased following a mathematical rule. As for everything this is optional, and you can come back to a “no martingale” approach by setting “martingale_strategy” to 0 (no martingale).
But let’s look at the different rules and then discuss the pros and cons of using them.
As you know we just released version 1.4 of Crescendo.
What are the most important features in it?
That’s it. This is a general overview of the most important changes and improvements made with this new version. I hope you’ll like them and will help you in being profitable.
Salve a tutti,
I already have a set of FAQs that I want to answer to to clear a few very important things.
ONE IMPORTANT THING: this version has been tested for a long time BUT as always RUN IT ON A DEMO ACCOUNT first and THEN move it to a real account. We can’t cover all the possible brokers, MT4 versions, settings, etc.
Here’s the “first” list of FAQs:
Default money management settings are made for running all the 5 pairs together?
Default use $1000 as initial balance and 0.01 lots for a target profit of 4$. This is a quite safe setting that can let you manage 2 or 3 pairs without great problems. If you plan to use all 5 pairs I suggest you to rise the minimum amount of your account to at least $2000.
But that also means that if you want you can run it starting with one pair only (GBPUSD is the best for now) with around $300/$500.
Does the maximum draw down (default 30%) refer to all the open orders of all the pairs?
No, starting from this version the DD is calculated per pair. So it is important to keep that in mind when calculating the maximum loss you can reach. What I suggest you to do is “partition” your account. So if for example you have a $1000 account use 2 pairs each one with an initial balance setting of $500 and the rest as default. That way each pair will risk max $150 (30% of $500). “Partitioning” is the safest approach when using multiple pairs. It is better if you don’t go lower than $500 initial balance for each pair (using 0.01 lots and $4 target).
Does the new version take care of the previous trades?
Actually the new version works with just one magic number (130907) and that is the magic number used for GBPUSD trades in the previous version. So it’ll be able to manage GBPUSD trades. If you want it to manage GBPJPY trades as well you have to change the “magic number” to 300610 that is the one used by the previous version for GBPJPY.
Do I have to run it on all the 5 pairs?
No. It depends on how much money you have in your account. As written before, use 1 pair for each $500 in your account. So to run them all you should have at least a $2000/$2500 account. Start with GBPUSD that is the one giving better results. In the next days I’ll publish tick by tick backtest performances so that you can then evaluate the other pairs.
Are those setting good for every pair?
The default settings are made to be good for every pair but we’ll publish some “optimized” setting in the next days with “set” files so that it’ll be very easy to apply them.
That’s all for now. If you have more questions we are here to answer them.
Remember, the main goal is not to loose money. If you are conservative in your settings then you’ll have more opportunities to be profitable. Don’t rush. The EA has some nice compounding feature that works pretty well and can bring nice profits if you are patient enough and wait for it to do its job 
With Paolo, we just setup a new server specifically meant for tick by tick backtesting and optimization. It is very fast and we’ll use if mainly for Crescendo and for all the others EAs we are using.
In the weekend I’ll write more detailed post about the improvements in the strategy and the direction I’m taking for version 2.0 Ultimate.
Salve a tutti,
I just uploaded the free update of Crescendo: version 1.4.
Here are the instructions to install it and the list of options available:
INSTALLATION
To install copy Crescendo_v1dot4.ex4 into your “MT4/Experts” folder and copy HullMA.ex4 and HMAcceleration.ex4 into “MT4/Experts/Indicators” folder.
You can apply Crescendo_v1dot4.ex4 to 1H charts of GBPUSD, EURUSD, GBPJPY, USDCHF and USDJPY.
OPTIONS LIST
AUTHENTICATION OPTIONS
username =”";
password =”";
those are the username and password used to login to the download area
STRATEGY SETTINGS
initial_balance = 1000;
this is the initial balance or the balance that the EA should use to trade.
order_step= 60;
this is the minimum amount of pips of distance from the last open order.
target_profit = 4;
this is the target profit in US dollars (!) that all the orders must reach to close them.
trailing_note = “0 – none; 1 – by profit;”;
trailing_strategy = 0;
trail_start = 4;
trail_step = 2;
if “profit_trailing” is set to true, the target profit is not used and a profit trailing procedure is used instead. The trailing will start when the “trail_start” value is reached and the orders will be closed if the profit “retrace” of “trail_step” value from the highest profit value. So by default when the profit reach $4, if the profit come back to $2 all the orders are closed. But in case the profit continue to increase and reach for example a maximum value of $10, the orders will be closed when the total profit value retraces to $8 (10-2). All the values are in US dollars (!).
frequency_note = “0 – always; 1 – every hour; 2 – every 3 hours”;
frequency_noteb = “3 – every 6 hours; 4 – every 12 hours; 5 – every 24 hours”;
frequency = 3;
this is the frequency used for the market check. The default frequency now is 3 (every 6 hours) and no longer 4 as the filters we are applying to orders opening will lower the number of orders.
dd_based_frequency = False;
dd_step = 1;
this option will make the frequency to be “automatic” and increase/reduce based on the value of the draw down percent. The “dd_step” will decide the step used to calculate the frequency value. I suggest you to leave that option to false (as is by default) as it needs more work to find the “optimum” setting.
trend_threshold = 3;
check_TrendScore_add_trades = true;
This will let the EA trade by using the trend score coming from the direction of 5 Hull Moving Averages. The “trend_threshold” is the minimum magnitude score to enter a trade. By default it is 3 meaning that a trend score of +3 or +5 is needed to open long trades, while a trend score of -3 or -5. Remember that there are only 3 levels of magnitude (from the weaker to the stronger): 1, 3 and 5.
additional_entries_threshold = 1;
this option give you the possibility to filter additional orders also based on the trend score. If the magnitude of the trend is equal or more that the “additional_entries_threshold” than the additional order is issued. So if for example the first order is a BUY entered with a trend score of +3, the additional orders can be sent only if the trend score of +1 or more.
This is made to issue additional orders when the trend direction of the initial order is resumed.
trend_timeframe_1 = PERIOD_H1;
trend_timeframe_2 = PERIOD_H1;
trend_timeframe_3 = PERIOD_H1;
trend_timeframe_4 = PERIOD_H1;
trend_timeframe_5 = PERIOD_H1;
those are the timeframe of each of the Hull Moving Averages. With version 1.4, by default we’ll use not a multi TIMEFRAME, but a multi PERIOD approach. So the timeframes will be all the same for all 5 the Hull MAs. This is because of some “fault” of Metatrader 4 in managing multi timeframe data both in backtests and when trading live. The multi period approach will avoid that kind of problem giving a much more “stable” trend score.
trend_period_1 = 24;
trend_period_2 = 48;
trend_period_3 = 72;
trend_period_4 = 96;
trend_period_5 = 120;
those are the periods of the 5 Hull MAs. With version 1.4 by default we’ll work with different periods instead of the previous default of 10 applied to different timeframes.
bar_0 = 1;
bar_1 = 2;
bars used to evaluate if the trend is going up or down.
0 – actual bar (not yet closed); 1 – first closed bar; 2 – second closed bar … etc.
trend_algo_note = “0 – Simple HMA Trend Score; 2 – Simple HMA average”;
trend_algo_note2 = “3 – Speed HMA Trend Score; 4 – Acceleration HMA Trend Score”;
trend_algo_note3 = “5 – Average of Speed HMA and Acceleration HMA Trend Scores”;
trend_algo_note4 = “6 – ParabolicSAR Trend Scores”;
trend_algo_note5 = “-1 – Manual Trend SELL; +1 – Manual Trend BUY”;
trend_algo = 4;
determines the trend algorithm used.
0 is the one actually used based on a score given by the direction of 5 Hull MAs
2 summs up the 5 HullMAs and divide the value by 5 to have a composite “hullMA”
if set to -1 or +1 it’ll manually set the trend direction.
3 uses a HullMA smoothed Speed indicator to determine the trend (instead of a simple HullMA)
4 uses a HullMA smoothed Acceleration indicator to determine the trend (instead of a simple HullMA)
6 uses the Parabolic SAR applied to multiple timeframes to calculate the trend
More informations on that here: http://www.pimpmyea.com/the-art-of-trend-scoring/
check_for_minimum_bars = false;
Checks if the platform has the minimum amount of bars to calculate the trend score correctly. We suggest you to set that to true at least at the beginning if you want to check if you have enough bars in your history data to have trend score calculated correctly.
check_BullBear_1st_trade = true;
check_BullBear_add_trades = false;
those option let you select the oscillators filters for the first trade of a set and/or for the additional traders.
filter_strategy_note = “0 – Simple Stochastic; 1 – Multiple Stochastics”;
filter_strategy_note2 = “2 – Simple RSI; 3 – Multiple RSIs”;
filter_strategy = 3;
those are the 4 filter available: the stochastic one is a 5,3,3 stochastic applied to 1H timframe, the stochastic3 is the average of the stochastics using the trend_timeframe1/2/3 and trend_period1/2/3. The rsi1 is the RSI of the trend_timeframe1/trend_period1. The rsi3 is the average of the trend_timeframe1-2-3/trend_period1-2-3
Bullish_threshold = 60;
Bearish_threshold = 40;
OB_threshold is the level used as a filter for a buy. If the value of the oscillator is > OB_treshold than it is good for a BUY.
OS_threshold is the level used as a filter for a sell. If the value of the oscillator is < OS_treshold than it is good for a SELL.
I use the oscillators as “momentum” indicators and not really overbough/oversold values (!!).
close_on_counter_trend = false;
counter_trend_threshold = 5;
if set to true then the EA will close the trade if the trend score reverses in the opposite direction of the initial order with a magnitude of “counter_trend_treshold” value or more.
use_stop_loss = false;
stop_loss = 500;
those options let you set a fixed stop loss to every order issued.
max_total_DD = 30;
this is maximum total draw down before closing all the orders.
avoid_low_volume_periods = true;
when set to true, the EA will stop from opening new positions around August and mid December to mid January. This is to avoid the EA to get caught in periods with low trading volumes that are very unstable. The periods are “hard coded” inside the EA code.
MONEY MANAGEMENT OPTIONS
max_open_orders = 10;
this is the maximum number of total open orders.
lot_size = 0.01;
this is the lot size used to open the inital order and the additional ones if no martingale is used. If it a martingale is used then the additional orders lots sizes will be calculated based on the martingale strategy.
slippage = 5;
this is the maximum slippage (difference between the price level sent by the EA and the one offered by the broker)
compounding = false;
compounding_factor = 0.5;
fine_compounding = true;
those options let you set the automatic compounding option. It’ll use the “initial_balance” to calculate the minimum amount of gain to increase the initial “lot_size”.
The “compoundig_factor” tells the EA how fast it’ll have to start compounding. With a value of 0.5 it means that when the gain will be equal to the initial_balance, the compounded lot_size will be only 50% more of the initial lot_size.
The increase of the lot size is made gradually and if the “fine_compouding” is set to true the it’ll use microlots (0.01 steps) to increase the lot_size for every order as the EA starts gaining.
So, the higher the number of the “compouding_factor” (defaul is 0.5 but can be 1 or 2 or any number) the faster the increase of the lot_size. I suggest you not to increase it too fast as otherwise you risk to hit the “max_DD” (see below). A value of 0.5 is in my opinion the best balance (max 1). But if you don’t worry too much about the DD and want to aggressively increase the lot_size, you can set to values higher than 1.
The fine compounding (if microlots steps are allowed by your account/broker) it is surely the best choise as it’ll give you the smoothest increase of the lot_size value.
Note that the target profit is AUTOMATICALLY adapted as the lot_size increases (even if the target profit is set to trailing!).
martingales_note = “0 – No Martingale; 1 – Linear”;
martingales_note2 = “2 – Fibonacci; 3 – Exponential; 4 – Logarithmic”;
martingale_strategy = 1;
exponential_factor = 2;
logarithm_multiplier = 4;
those are are a set of 4 different martingale strategies.
The linear one uses that sequence 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, etc multiplied by the lot_size.
The Fibonaccy uses the sequence 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13 etc multiplied by the lot_size.
The exponential uses the classical exponential increase, so with a factor of 2 the sequence is 1, 2, 4, 8, 16 etc.
The logarithmic one uses the natural log multipled by the log_multiplier to increase the lot_size.
GMT_time_shift = 7;
GMT shift used to determine the “virtual midnight” of the EA
Magic_Number = 130907;
magic number used by the EA
randomize_entry_minute = False;
adds a random amount of minutes for opening a new order
comment = “Crescendo_1.4″;
sets the comment sent with every order
hide_comment = false;
sends orders without any comment
verbose = true;
set it to false to speed up backtests
The link to download it is:
http://www.forexcrescendo.com/downloads/Crescendo_v1dot4.zip
If you have problems write to support@forexcrescendo.com
In the next days I’ll publish a set of post that will describe in great details the new strategies and how to use them at best.
Cheers,
Andrea
Salve a tutti,
it’s been a long time since I posted and I’m glad to do it to announce that Crescendo version 1.4 free update will be available next Thursday June 30th.
I’m finalizing it now and in the next days I’ll detail the new features. Some of them have been detailed in the past months but since it has passed a lot of time it’ll be good to recap everything.
I’ll also try to go more in details about the different strategy approached that can be used to trade with it (for example “hedging”).
Version 2.0 (aka Crescendo Unlimited) will be released before the end of Summer. I’m still working on some of the new strategies and I’m planning to release the code of the trend scoring algorithms so that you can modify them or create new ones.
I’d like to thank you all for your patience and I’m sure that it will be worth the wait.
A presto,
Andrea
Salve a tutti,
after months of silence I’m finally back to write on the blogs.
I’m sorry about that but as many of you already know, there were things required most of my time and so I had to give them priority over all the rest.
The good news is that I’m back and that I can come back to focus on trading and developing again as that’s what I’m good in
First thing before going forward with the list of important things that I have to say, I’d like to thank all the people that wrote me during that period. I tryed to reply to all of you and you’ve been a great help and gave me the strength to come back now and continue what I started months ago.
So let’s start as time is shot and we have a loooot of things to say and most of all to do:
That’s all for now. I’m write a lot of things more in the next days as I have a lot of “backload” to take care of.. so be prepared
Thanks to everyone again.
Have a great Sunday and recharge.
A presto,
Andrea
In one of the last post I explained the new trend score calculation algorithms.
In this post I’ll explain more in depth how the new trailing feature (available only in the “Ultimate” version of Crescendo works)
We have seen that the trend score can go from -5 (strong bearish) to +5 (strong bullish) and we’ll use it to filter entries. By default we’ll enter only if the trend score magnitude is 3 or more: so +3 or more for a long trade and -3 or more for a short trade.
So let’s say we entered GBPUSD long with a +3 score. With a fixed take profit we’ll close when the total profit of all the long orders on GBPUSD is equal or greater than the “target_profit” (in US Dollars).
If we use the trend score based trailing procedure it’ll continue to keep the trade open until the trend score goes to a lower value than the one used to enter (in our case +3). For the orders to be closed the total value of them has to be equal or greater than 0, otherwise it won’t close even if the trend score decreases.
If the trend score increases, the new value is used as a limit.
So let’s say that we entered long with a trend score +3, and then the price continue to go up and the trend score increased to +5, then as soon as the trend score comes back to a value lower than +5, all the long orders will be closed.
Naturally the same applies to short trades and for trend score entry thresholds lower than 3 (1 for example).
This can let the EA ride trends in a very particular way. Depending on the trend algorithms used this can be more or less effective.
But also permits to close “bad” entries much shortly than using the usual strategy. Why that? I told you that not only the trend score has to be lower than the entry value or the highest value reached, bu the value of the trades should be at least 0 for the orders to be closed.
Suppose that we entered long with a trend score +3. The price then lowers and so the trend. So we have a trend score of less than +3 but the profit is also below 0. As usual, if there are the conditions it’ll open additional orders, lowering the breakeven level. If the trend score continues to be below the initial +3, as soon as the price touches the breakeven all the orders will be closed, letting the EA ready to eventually go short if the new trend score is -3 or less.
Pyramiding also works based on the trend score. Pyramiding means opening additional trades if the profits are positive and the trend is strong. How does it work. Let’s say again that we entered long with a +3 trend score. As soon as the trend score increses (and the total value of orders is positive) we open another long order. So if the trend is so strong that the trend score increased to +5, we open another long order. This works particularly well if we start to enter at magnitude 1 and even better if we use a trend score algorithm that has more steps (like the average of speed and acceleration one).
This seems to be the real question.
Recently in the blog there have been a couple of comments from really experts (manual) traders saying that all the EAs are scam, that the only way to trade is learn technical analysis and learn to trade manually.
All the rest is marketing and scam. No way.
Well, this is post it to reply to that point of view. I started trading 11 years ago. And started coding 29 years ago. I traded almost everything: stocks, CFDs, futures, Forex, options, etc. Started studying a lot of technical analysis going in depth by also studying almos every single formula behing every indicator, so to really understand what’s the meaning of what they show. I consider myself, and I’m considered a good “manual” trader so to live out of it. That’s what in my opinion makes the real difference.
But I grow up in fron of a computer, coding most of the time. And it was natural to also apply my programming knowledge to trading. Again, I coded almost everything for trading, from “simple” indicators, to neural networks, to “robots”.
So I walked both the path of “fully” manual and “fully” automatic trading. And after years I got the evidence that there’s good and bad in both. Both approaches have pros and cons. So I came to the conclusion that the best thing is follow a third path that takes the best out of both. That’s what is best FOR ME. I’m not saying that is best for EVERYONE.
People writing the above mentioned posts are not good for automatic trading. They simply don’t get it. It’s not their fault. But they are exeptionally good manual traders. Once you got that you simply have to follow your path. The one that works for you. And there are many ways to follow it, many trading systems, many “theories” etc. Whatever works for you is good. But simply DON’T PRETEND TO SAY THAT WHAT WORKS FOR YOU IS THE ONLY GOOD WAY TO DO ONE THING. I never did… You won’t ever read or listen me saying that automatic trading is the only way to be a succesful trader. Because it’s not. As nobody can say that trading Fibos and/or Pivots and/or Elliot waves and/or Japanese Candles pattern and/or point&figure and/or ANY OTHER METHOD is the only way to be succesful. What works for you, may not work for someone else. Traditional technical analysis and all the other theories behind any manual trading system are simply ways to read price action. That’s it. In the past, before computers (and some still do something like that now) there were traders able to build empires with “tape reading”, trading by simply reading the streamed price value.
That’s because is your brain that makes the real difference. Humans are incredibly good in pattern recognition. Indicators, candles, etc simply help your brain learning and recognizing patterns. Some may be good for you, but our brains are very different from each other, and that’s why someone else may not have the same performances using the same system. With time and experience, you’ll arrive at a level that you’ll do the same trade hundreds, thousands of time and trading will be almost boring, like almost every kind of job/business.
Absolutely the same thing applies to EA trading. It’s a kind of trading not made for everyone. And not all the EAs are good for everyone. Yes, you can use them as “set and forget”, but sooner or later they will fail. This is one of the “problems” with EAs. They are not so good in adapting to market conditions. That’s why programmers should spend time making them better and change them as market conditions change. That’s why I’m continuing working on Crescendo.
We tend to forget that behind an EA there’s a trader (or a team of traders). I’m not talking about the few good ones out there. The strategy should “evolve” as the market changes and so the EA. But that happens in manual trading. I don’t know a single trader that is using EXACTLY the same strategy since he started. We do always perfect it. Try to find new things that can improve performances as much as possible. All the good manual traders also, don’t use ONE strategy, but many and depending on the market conditions they switch from one to the other. Sometimes using more than one at the same time (for example a long term one and a short term one).
How can we then pretend that an EA is good for all the market conditions?
That’s were the real automatic trader is called to do something. Despite of the common ideas EAs (or any kind of automatic trading piece of software) ARE TOOLS. The automatic trader has to learn to know how they work, what are the best market conditions for them to work, recognize them and decide which EA is good to use or not or better, simply know when an EA should be stopped from trading. Sometimes better stop them all
I always said that. There are two ways to trade with EAs: set and forget and what I call “semi-automatic”. The first one is good if you have someone developing the EA that also keeps it updated. But the best one is to use your brain and experience and trade with EAs. It’s not easy and requires time and knowledge, but surely much less than becoming one of the 2% of incredibly good and wise “manual” traders. It helps but it’s not mandatory thanks to the fact that we can rely on some “knowledge” coming from the EAs developers.
But at that point my friends ask: but if I have to do all that job, why trade with EAs and simply not trade by myself?
First, because trading with EAs you can have use strategies that you won’t ever be able to use by trading manually. I personally believe that good EAs are not manual trading system into electonic format. They don’t work. But there are many exclusively mathematical trading system that work best when it’s a computer to handle them. Our brains are not good in calcs… let computers do what they are best for. Correlations, arbitrage, grids, and many more are perfect to be run by a computer and impossible to handle manually.
Second, who said that you can’t do both? That’s what I do when I have time for example. I still love to trade manually and have a set of trading systems that I developed with time that I use for manual trading (and won’t ever convert into an EA as they are not good for that) that work flawlessly.
Third, nobody is trying to convince you to trade with automatic tools. You are, and always be, free to trade with whatever you want. If you don’t feel comfortable in trading with automatic tool, don’t do it. The world would be a much better place if nobody would think that he/she has got the real TRUTH. No more Crusades, please. We should have evolved from that point. The market is large enough for all of us, and we are wrong (and you’re the only ones to be right) please let us do our mistakes and learn. I’m sure you made yours and you learned much more from your failures that from your success. Or you are so good that skipped the “I made a mistake” phase?
Personally I continue to do mistakes. Many. At least I pretend not to do the same ones. For that reason, Crescendo will be my first and last public EA.
I’m very proud of Crescendo. In the hands of someone with the right attitude is the best EA commercially available. No other developer/trader explained so in details the whole strategy. No other developer/trader keeps their users updated of all the development he/she’s doing and works so much in improving it. Some say that the fact that the 4th version is coming (after 6 months) is not a good sign. Well all the best EAs out there are updated frequently, and that’s what it keeps them working. Also, since Crescendo has been released I decided to dedicate most of my time to it’s development. That gave me the opportunity to improve it. Also the first two versions were mainly bug fixes.
Not all the retail EAs are scam. Trust me. What I do with PimpMyEA is that. Is try to “fitler” EAs that based on my knowledge, experience and “reverse engineering” that have potentials. Since PimpMyEA it public (3 months now) I reviewed only a very very small part of the EAs, manual trading systems, etc. that has been released: 5 EAs (Crescendo included!) out of hundreds!
I can’t guarantee anything other than my dedication in finding something good to be traded. I can’t be responsible if they have support issues or if then we find some bug that needs fixing. I try to do my best to fix and work on any possible issue, by contacting the authors and work in between you and them. Most of you know how hard can it be to have problems solved.
I don’t live from selling EAs. I WANT TO BE VERY CLEAR ABOUT THAT. I’m a trader. An automatic trader. I live out of my EAs trading on my live accounts. The money I got from selling EAs are a small part of my incomes. Less than 10% usually of my monthly incomes. But as I spend time doing that, I suppose there’s nothing wrong in being “rewarded” for that.
Last thing… unfortunately, trading is not “completly” an analog game. Some of the recent events are demostrating that the game is more and more handled by digital systems. And so it’ll be more and more in the future. It’s ineviable. Better be prepared. So, my incredibly good manual traders, open your mind a little.
Salve a tutti,
with this post I’d like to explain the different trend scoring strategies that I developed and implemented in Crescendo and Crescendo Ultimate.
This is the first of a set of posts that are made to explain in details the new strategies so that you’ll be able to use Crescendo not only with the default settings (that will be those “good for everyone”) but also as a tool for automatic trading.
Crescendo, like no other commercial EA out there, is not a “simple EA”, but also a real tool for automatic trader. Some of you, also thanks to Crescendo, are starting to discover a new way of trading and becoming more and more what’s called a “quantitative trader”.
First, why trend scoring? Giving a “score” to the trend helps mainly in filtering entries. You can decide to enter trades only when the trend is very strong, for example. The more you filter them, the less trades you have but the more “surefire”. On Crescendo Ultimate scoring is also used to exit trades via a trailing strategy that I’ll explain in details in the next posts.
Actually I developed 6 different strategies for trend scoring but many many more can be developed with the same concept.
Below there’s a picture showing a comparison of the 6 algorithm I actually developed and tested:
The trend score goes from -5 (strong short) to +5 (strong long).
To do so I calculate the value of an “indicator” 5 times (different time frames and/or different periods) and based on a set of rules we give a +1 if the indicator gives a bullish trend, and -1 if it gives a bearish trend. Summing up the 5 values we have a score that can go from -5 to +5.
We evaluate if 5 Hull Moving Averages are going up or down. There are a couple of approaches to that.
The first one is use the same period (like 9 or 10 periods) to different timeframes (like 1H, 4H, 1D, 1W and 1MN).
The second one is to use the same timeframe (like 1H) but with different periods (like 9, 25, 36, 169 and 441).
To evaluate if the HullMA is bullish or bearish we compare the value of the HullMA of the present bar (or the last closed one) and the bar before it. If the value did increase then the HMA is bullish, if it’s decreasing the it’s bearish. Very simple
I won’t go more in details why I did choose the HullMA but in simple words it is because is a fast moving average and very smooth. So, fast (not much lagging) and thanks to smoothness it doesn’t give many false signals.
We create a new moving average coming from the average of the value of the 5 HullMAs. So we sum the value of the 5 HullMA and divide by 5. We do that for the current bar (or the last closed one) and for the previous one.
This time we won’t have a score coming from the value of 5 HullMAs but from only one calculated on the average of the 5 HullMA. If the new composite HullMA is pointing up we give a +5 score, if it’s poiting down then we give a -5 score.
So, with that second algo we’ll have only two scores: -5 and +5.
It’s like the 1st algo (Hull Moving Average) but we use the “speed” of the price. In reality we use a smoothed version of the speed of price (smoothed using the Hull algorithm).
The score is then calculated giving a +1 for each speed if it is increasing and -1 if it’s decreasing.
Speed is the perfect momentum indicator and works quite well as a trend indicator.
Same as for Speed but using acceleration instead of speed.
Acceleration is the speed of speed and so it’s a very good momentum indicator with some “forecasting” ability. Sometimes even too much
In this case we calculate 5 speeds and 5 accelerations. We sum them (so we can have scores from -10 to +10) and we divide the value by 2. That way we’ll have scores from -5 to +5 but unlike with algo 1-3-4 we also have odd values: -5, -4, -3, -2, -1, 0, +1, +2, +3, +4 and +5.
Why use both speed and acceleration? I decided to try with that to smooth the “forecasting” coming from acceleration. Also the fact that gives all the values from -5 to +5 (0 included) gives a better way to read the trend.
Like for algo 1-3-4, but using the Parabolic SAR indicator.
This is the last indicator that I’m using for trend scoring and it is giving very good results.
Difficult to say which one is best. Based on my experience it depends much on the the way Crescendo is set (fixed target profit or trailing, currency pair used, etc).
I’m thinking about taking out the trend scoring algorithms from Crescendo, and let it rely on an external indicator (like the one shown in the above picture) and provide you with the code of it. That way if you want to add your own trend scoring algo or modify the existing ones you’re free to do that. And also I can provide you with new algorithms simply by sending you an updated version of the “trend indicator”.
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