Archive for the ‘ Automatic Trading ’ Category
Salve a tutti,
with version 1.4 I did introduce a linear martingale approach as default.
That means that the lot size for additional orders will be increased following a mathematical rule. As for everything this is optional, and you can come back to a “no martingale” approach by setting “martingale_strategy” to 0 (no martingale).
But let’s look at the different rules and then discuss the pros and cons of using them.
Salve a tutti,
it’s been a long time since I posted and I’m glad to do it to announce that Crescendo version 1.4 free update will be available next Thursday June 30th.
I’m finalizing it now and in the next days I’ll detail the new features. Some of them have been detailed in the past months but since it has passed a lot of time it’ll be good to recap everything.
I’ll also try to go more in details about the different strategy approached that can be used to trade with it (for example “hedging”).
Version 2.0 (aka Crescendo Unlimited) will be released before the end of Summer. I’m still working on some of the new strategies and I’m planning to release the code of the trend scoring algorithms so that you can modify them or create new ones.
I’d like to thank you all for your patience and I’m sure that it will be worth the wait.
A presto,
Andrea
In one of the last post I explained the new trend score calculation algorithms.
In this post I’ll explain more in depth how the new trailing feature (available only in the “Ultimate” version of Crescendo works)
We have seen that the trend score can go from -5 (strong bearish) to +5 (strong bullish) and we’ll use it to filter entries. By default we’ll enter only if the trend score magnitude is 3 or more: so +3 or more for a long trade and -3 or more for a short trade.
So let’s say we entered GBPUSD long with a +3 score. With a fixed take profit we’ll close when the total profit of all the long orders on GBPUSD is equal or greater than the “target_profit” (in US Dollars).
If we use the trend score based trailing procedure it’ll continue to keep the trade open until the trend score goes to a lower value than the one used to enter (in our case +3). For the orders to be closed the total value of them has to be equal or greater than 0, otherwise it won’t close even if the trend score decreases.
If the trend score increases, the new value is used as a limit.
So let’s say that we entered long with a trend score +3, and then the price continue to go up and the trend score increased to +5, then as soon as the trend score comes back to a value lower than +5, all the long orders will be closed.
Naturally the same applies to short trades and for trend score entry thresholds lower than 3 (1 for example).
This can let the EA ride trends in a very particular way. Depending on the trend algorithms used this can be more or less effective.
But also permits to close “bad” entries much shortly than using the usual strategy. Why that? I told you that not only the trend score has to be lower than the entry value or the highest value reached, bu the value of the trades should be at least 0 for the orders to be closed.
Suppose that we entered long with a trend score +3. The price then lowers and so the trend. So we have a trend score of less than +3 but the profit is also below 0. As usual, if there are the conditions it’ll open additional orders, lowering the breakeven level. If the trend score continues to be below the initial +3, as soon as the price touches the breakeven all the orders will be closed, letting the EA ready to eventually go short if the new trend score is -3 or less.
Pyramiding also works based on the trend score. Pyramiding means opening additional trades if the profits are positive and the trend is strong. How does it work. Let’s say again that we entered long with a +3 trend score. As soon as the trend score increses (and the total value of orders is positive) we open another long order. So if the trend is so strong that the trend score increased to +5, we open another long order. This works particularly well if we start to enter at magnitude 1 and even better if we use a trend score algorithm that has more steps (like the average of speed and acceleration one).
This seems to be the real question.
Recently in the blog there have been a couple of comments from really experts (manual) traders saying that all the EAs are scam, that the only way to trade is learn technical analysis and learn to trade manually.
All the rest is marketing and scam. No way.
Well, this is post it to reply to that point of view. I started trading 11 years ago. And started coding 29 years ago. I traded almost everything: stocks, CFDs, futures, Forex, options, etc. Started studying a lot of technical analysis going in depth by also studying almos every single formula behing every indicator, so to really understand what’s the meaning of what they show. I consider myself, and I’m considered a good “manual” trader so to live out of it. That’s what in my opinion makes the real difference.
But I grow up in fron of a computer, coding most of the time. And it was natural to also apply my programming knowledge to trading. Again, I coded almost everything for trading, from “simple” indicators, to neural networks, to “robots”.
So I walked both the path of “fully” manual and “fully” automatic trading. And after years I got the evidence that there’s good and bad in both. Both approaches have pros and cons. So I came to the conclusion that the best thing is follow a third path that takes the best out of both. That’s what is best FOR ME. I’m not saying that is best for EVERYONE.
People writing the above mentioned posts are not good for automatic trading. They simply don’t get it. It’s not their fault. But they are exeptionally good manual traders. Once you got that you simply have to follow your path. The one that works for you. And there are many ways to follow it, many trading systems, many “theories” etc. Whatever works for you is good. But simply DON’T PRETEND TO SAY THAT WHAT WORKS FOR YOU IS THE ONLY GOOD WAY TO DO ONE THING. I never did… You won’t ever read or listen me saying that automatic trading is the only way to be a succesful trader. Because it’s not. As nobody can say that trading Fibos and/or Pivots and/or Elliot waves and/or Japanese Candles pattern and/or point&figure and/or ANY OTHER METHOD is the only way to be succesful. What works for you, may not work for someone else. Traditional technical analysis and all the other theories behind any manual trading system are simply ways to read price action. That’s it. In the past, before computers (and some still do something like that now) there were traders able to build empires with “tape reading”, trading by simply reading the streamed price value.
That’s because is your brain that makes the real difference. Humans are incredibly good in pattern recognition. Indicators, candles, etc simply help your brain learning and recognizing patterns. Some may be good for you, but our brains are very different from each other, and that’s why someone else may not have the same performances using the same system. With time and experience, you’ll arrive at a level that you’ll do the same trade hundreds, thousands of time and trading will be almost boring, like almost every kind of job/business.
Absolutely the same thing applies to EA trading. It’s a kind of trading not made for everyone. And not all the EAs are good for everyone. Yes, you can use them as “set and forget”, but sooner or later they will fail. This is one of the “problems” with EAs. They are not so good in adapting to market conditions. That’s why programmers should spend time making them better and change them as market conditions change. That’s why I’m continuing working on Crescendo.
We tend to forget that behind an EA there’s a trader (or a team of traders). I’m not talking about the few good ones out there. The strategy should “evolve” as the market changes and so the EA. But that happens in manual trading. I don’t know a single trader that is using EXACTLY the same strategy since he started. We do always perfect it. Try to find new things that can improve performances as much as possible. All the good manual traders also, don’t use ONE strategy, but many and depending on the market conditions they switch from one to the other. Sometimes using more than one at the same time (for example a long term one and a short term one).
How can we then pretend that an EA is good for all the market conditions?
That’s were the real automatic trader is called to do something. Despite of the common ideas EAs (or any kind of automatic trading piece of software) ARE TOOLS. The automatic trader has to learn to know how they work, what are the best market conditions for them to work, recognize them and decide which EA is good to use or not or better, simply know when an EA should be stopped from trading. Sometimes better stop them all 
I always said that. There are two ways to trade with EAs: set and forget and what I call “semi-automatic”. The first one is good if you have someone developing the EA that also keeps it updated. But the best one is to use your brain and experience and trade with EAs. It’s not easy and requires time and knowledge, but surely much less than becoming one of the 2% of incredibly good and wise “manual” traders. It helps but it’s not mandatory thanks to the fact that we can rely on some “knowledge” coming from the EAs developers.
But at that point my friends ask: but if I have to do all that job, why trade with EAs and simply not trade by myself?
First, because trading with EAs you can have use strategies that you won’t ever be able to use by trading manually. I personally believe that good EAs are not manual trading system into electonic format. They don’t work. But there are many exclusively mathematical trading system that work best when it’s a computer to handle them. Our brains are not good in calcs… let computers do what they are best for. Correlations, arbitrage, grids, and many more are perfect to be run by a computer and impossible to handle manually.
Second, who said that you can’t do both? That’s what I do when I have time for example. I still love to trade manually and have a set of trading systems that I developed with time that I use for manual trading (and won’t ever convert into an EA as they are not good for that) that work flawlessly.
Third, nobody is trying to convince you to trade with automatic tools. You are, and always be, free to trade with whatever you want. If you don’t feel comfortable in trading with automatic tool, don’t do it. The world would be a much better place if nobody would think that he/she has got the real TRUTH. No more Crusades, please. We should have evolved from that point. The market is large enough for all of us, and we are wrong (and you’re the only ones to be right) please let us do our mistakes and learn. I’m sure you made yours and you learned much more from your failures that from your success. Or you are so good that skipped the “I made a mistake” phase?
Personally I continue to do mistakes. Many. At least I pretend not to do the same ones. For that reason, Crescendo will be my first and last public EA.
I’m very proud of Crescendo. In the hands of someone with the right attitude is the best EA commercially available. No other developer/trader explained so in details the whole strategy. No other developer/trader keeps their users updated of all the development he/she’s doing and works so much in improving it. Some say that the fact that the 4th version is coming (after 6 months) is not a good sign. Well all the best EAs out there are updated frequently, and that’s what it keeps them working. Also, since Crescendo has been released I decided to dedicate most of my time to it’s development. That gave me the opportunity to improve it. Also the first two versions were mainly bug fixes.
Not all the retail EAs are scam. Trust me. What I do with PimpMyEA is that. Is try to “fitler” EAs that based on my knowledge, experience and “reverse engineering” that have potentials. Since PimpMyEA it public (3 months now) I reviewed only a very very small part of the EAs, manual trading systems, etc. that has been released: 5 EAs (Crescendo included!) out of hundreds!
I can’t guarantee anything other than my dedication in finding something good to be traded. I can’t be responsible if they have support issues or if then we find some bug that needs fixing. I try to do my best to fix and work on any possible issue, by contacting the authors and work in between you and them. Most of you know how hard can it be to have problems solved.
I don’t live from selling EAs. I WANT TO BE VERY CLEAR ABOUT THAT. I’m a trader. An automatic trader. I live out of my EAs trading on my live accounts. The money I got from selling EAs are a small part of my incomes. Less than 10% usually of my monthly incomes. But as I spend time doing that, I suppose there’s nothing wrong in being “rewarded” for that.
Last thing… unfortunately, trading is not “completly” an analog game. Some of the recent events are demostrating that the game is more and more handled by digital systems. And so it’ll be more and more in the future. It’s ineviable. Better be prepared. So, my incredibly good manual traders, open your mind a little.
Salve a tutti,
with this post I’d like to explain the different trend scoring strategies that I developed and implemented in Crescendo and Crescendo Ultimate.
This is the first of a set of posts that are made to explain in details the new strategies so that you’ll be able to use Crescendo not only with the default settings (that will be those “good for everyone”) but also as a tool for automatic trading.
Crescendo, like no other commercial EA out there, is not a “simple EA”, but also a real tool for automatic trader. Some of you, also thanks to Crescendo, are starting to discover a new way of trading and becoming more and more what’s called a “quantitative trader”.
First, why trend scoring? Giving a “score” to the trend helps mainly in filtering entries. You can decide to enter trades only when the trend is very strong, for example. The more you filter them, the less trades you have but the more “surefire”. On Crescendo Ultimate scoring is also used to exit trades via a trailing strategy that I’ll explain in details in the next posts.
Actually I developed 6 different strategies for trend scoring but many many more can be developed with the same concept.
Below there’s a picture showing a comparison of the 6 algorithm I actually developed and tested:
The trend score goes from -5 (strong short) to +5 (strong long).
To do so I calculate the value of an “indicator” 5 times (different time frames and/or different periods) and based on a set of rules we give a +1 if the indicator gives a bullish trend, and -1 if it gives a bearish trend. Summing up the 5 values we have a score that can go from -5 to +5.
We evaluate if 5 Hull Moving Averages are going up or down. There are a couple of approaches to that.
The first one is use the same period (like 9 or 10 periods) to different timeframes (like 1H, 4H, 1D, 1W and 1MN).
The second one is to use the same timeframe (like 1H) but with different periods (like 9, 25, 36, 169 and 441).
To evaluate if the HullMA is bullish or bearish we compare the value of the HullMA of the present bar (or the last closed one) and the bar before it. If the value did increase then the HMA is bullish, if it’s decreasing the it’s bearish. Very simple 
I won’t go more in details why I did choose the HullMA but in simple words it is because is a fast moving average and very smooth. So, fast (not much lagging) and thanks to smoothness it doesn’t give many false signals.
We create a new moving average coming from the average of the value of the 5 HullMAs. So we sum the value of the 5 HullMA and divide by 5. We do that for the current bar (or the last closed one) and for the previous one.
This time we won’t have a score coming from the value of 5 HullMAs but from only one calculated on the average of the 5 HullMA. If the new composite HullMA is pointing up we give a +5 score, if it’s poiting down then we give a -5 score.
So, with that second algo we’ll have only two scores: -5 and +5.
It’s like the 1st algo (Hull Moving Average) but we use the “speed” of the price. In reality we use a smoothed version of the speed of price (smoothed using the Hull algorithm).
The score is then calculated giving a +1 for each speed if it is increasing and -1 if it’s decreasing.
Speed is the perfect momentum indicator and works quite well as a trend indicator.
Same as for Speed but using acceleration instead of speed.
Acceleration is the speed of speed and so it’s a very good momentum indicator with some “forecasting” ability. Sometimes even too much
In this case we calculate 5 speeds and 5 accelerations. We sum them (so we can have scores from -10 to +10) and we divide the value by 2. That way we’ll have scores from -5 to +5 but unlike with algo 1-3-4 we also have odd values: -5, -4, -3, -2, -1, 0, +1, +2, +3, +4 and +5.
Why use both speed and acceleration? I decided to try with that to smooth the “forecasting” coming from acceleration. Also the fact that gives all the values from -5 to +5 (0 included) gives a better way to read the trend.
Like for algo 1-3-4, but using the Parabolic SAR indicator.
This is the last indicator that I’m using for trend scoring and it is giving very good results.
Difficult to say which one is best. Based on my experience it depends much on the the way Crescendo is set (fixed target profit or trailing, currency pair used, etc).
I’m thinking about taking out the trend scoring algorithms from Crescendo, and let it rely on an external indicator (like the one shown in the above picture) and provide you with the code of it. That way if you want to add your own trend scoring algo or modify the existing ones you’re free to do that. And also I can provide you with new algorithms simply by sending you an updated version of the “trend indicator”.
Salve a tutti,
first of all I’d like to tell to all the Japanese people part of this community that my hearth is with you all and knowing you a little I’m sure that you’ll be able to recover from this disaster thanks to your incredible strength and dignity.
I’ll try to do all we can to help you in that. You can always count on me. And I’m sure that this is feeling is shared between all of us.
Second… the Yen is actually in a very volatile situation and I think it’ll be so for a quite long period. I suggest then to stop trading EAs on Yen based pairs (Crescendo included) or trade it with very low lot size.
Yesterday we’ve seen a drop of more than 500 pips in a very short time on GBPJPY (even more on USDJPY) and about 1000 in two days. Most of the loss now it’s recovered but things like that may badly hurt EAs performances.
For Crescendo I’m thinking about substituting the GBPJPY pair with a new one. In the next days I’ll give you more information on that.
Said that, please if you have any idea about that please share it with the whole community. I think it’s important to talk to understand the direction to take, both in trading and in trying to find a way to help Japanese people recover from that disaster.
Salve a tutti,
I just sent an email to all the beta testers with the new Crescendo v1.4 Unlimited BETA.
The default settings don’t use the new features so it’ll work as the “regular” Crescendo v1.4 BETA.
Also it isn’t limited to run on GBPUSD and GBPJPY, but can be applied to any instrument.
In the next few days I’ll give you more information on performances also thanks to beta testers feedback.
Salve a tutti,
great news! I just opened a new section in PimpMyEA.com blog: Live EAs.
In this section of the blog you can LIVE(!!) follow EAs trading.
And the first EA in that section is Crescendo v1.4 beta.
More EAs will come in the next days, as well as a leaderboard to compare EAs performances.
The technology is made available thanks to Gallant VPS.
I have to thank them all as this is such a great VPS solution and they worked a lot to make it available.
No other website can offer you a service like that and I’m very proud of it.
As I wrote a few days ago, I decided to start a new blog. In reality it a new project. With the launch of the Leo Trader Pro, a lot of comments about it have been posted in Crescendo’s blog. Many are asking for support, sharing opinions, ideas, tweaks, etc. That is a great thing, but I’d like to keep Crescendo’s blog mainly related to Crescendo. For that reason, I decided to start a new blog about automatic trading in general, and specifically about automatic trading with MT4.
I already had in mind to start a project like that, but I was planning to do it later this year. Your interest in automatic trading made me decide that now is the time to start this thing and I dedicated the last days to set up the first part of this project.
This project is named PimpMyEA.com
As you can easily guess by the name, the main idea behind the project is to help you use your EAs at best. The website will contain a lot of information like review, statistics, demo and live account performances, backtest performances, as well as tweaked settings to make your EAs (commercial and not) work at best.
The first phase is the blog. There, you’ll already find reviews of the EAs I like and suggest you to use to build your portfolio of EAs as well as a list of the indicators that I developed in this years. Some of them are already freely downloadable.
PimpMyEA.com is not a simple spin-off of the Crescendo’s blog, but it’s a totally new project that will evolve fast. Read the first post here: http://www.pimpmyea.com to have a more in depth idea of what’s about to come in the next days, weeks and months.
As usual, you can feely comment everywhere as I am hoping that you’ll continue to follow me as you’re doing on the Crescendo’s blog. All my posts about things not related to Crescendo will be posted in PimpMyEa.com from now on. So, I wait for you to join me there as well.
In that direction also goes my friend Rob Casey. We spoke about that in the past weeks and he told me that he was working on something. Today, he’ll hold a webinar about how to recognize Forex scams. This will be a 3-step training that I’m sure will help you.
If you’re interested on that free training you can click on the link below and sign in the page:
http://www.pimpmyea.com/rob_casey.html
I’ll be there for sure as Rob has got a lot of experience in that, and I’m sure there’ll be something interesting to learn.
After having said that, I will wait on you at www.pimpmyea.com!
Salve a tutti,
this is a small free software developed by a guy (MSFX) that helps EAs like Leo Trader to keep communications with the main server always active and updated by sending “fake” ticks to the MT4 platform.
As you know, indicators and EAs are only run when there’s a new tick in the chart. Usually there’s not problem during the London and the New York session, but during the asian session the number of ticks (updated of the chart price) can be very slow. This may cause a lag between the time the order is sent in the server and the time the order is fetched by the client (you Leo Trader Pro EA).
To keep that communication always active we can use this software that can let us send ticks to ALL the open MT4 platforms up to 2 times every second.
I’ve uploaded it into my server as MSFX web server is no longer online.
Here’s the link to download the MSFX-MT4 Tick Sender:
http://www.forexcrescendo.com/downloads/MSFX-MT4TickSender-Setup.exe
All you have to do is install it.
Double click the “MSFX – MT4 Tick Sender” icon on your desktop.
You’ll see a small window showing when it sent the last tick and let you set the “Refresh” time in milliseconds. 500 is default.
That’s it. You can hide it and let it run in background.
| M | T | W | T | F | S | S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| « Jul | ||||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
| 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 |
| 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | ||